Between Hell and High Water

Update on the Presidential Election

By Mike Koetting March 13, 2024

I last wrote about presidential politics in July. Now, we are half-way between that post and the election. The primary season is well under way. Probably time for an update.

The Nominees

The two front runners are still who they were in July—Trump and Biden.

Of course, In July I predicted Trump would not be the Republican nominee. Sure looks like I was wrong. It is true that some people put a lot of money into Nicki Haley. I’m guessing some of that was because they didn’t want Trump and some because they wanted to have an alternative in case Trump imploded. It never crossed my mind anything would dissuade his base, but I simply couldn’t get my head around the idea that serious people would give a pass to a person with all his baggage in a world so fraught with difficulties. I don’t know if the issue is that these people think having a person like him is an advantage or the sense of inevitably has simply worn down those I thought would throw the switch. The glacial slowness of the court system has certainly benefited Trump. The fact that the Supremes agreed to hear the immunity case—however they ultimately rule—was a gift of delay. I always thought that people who said a Trump conviction would deter them were exaggerating the likelihood of their paying attention to the legal system. But I did believe more power players would balk at the idea of a candidate having to bob and weave around court appearances and spend large sums of money on legal defense. I failed to realize that the potential alternative power centers in the GOP had so completely capitulated to the Trumplicans.

I still think Biden will be the Democratic nominee. But, opposite Trump, his position in the party has gotten weaker—despite an objectively strong job performance and a good State of the Union performance. The merciless criticism of his age has taken a toll. Although the media is reasonably good about also calling attention to Donald Trump’s arguably greater cognitive deficits, the damage to Biden is much greater because Republicans simply don’t care. Biden has also been saddled with a mess in the Middle East that alienates key parts of his base. Again, the Republicans don’t care—and to the extent they do care, atrocities against Muslims are fine with them. He might turn this into something good if he can up with a settlement in the next few months. If a settlement is not forthcoming, his only political choice will be to get much tougher with Israel. Where that goes is hard to predict. Finally, it is a fact that Biden’s energy level is observably lower and his projection shakier. On balance, as Ezra Kein summarized it, Biden is a much better president than a presidential candidate.

Meanwhile, Closer to Home (Or….Cities Are Really Difficult)

By Mike Koetting February 26, 2024

The last several posts have been on extremely macro issues. Today’s post lurches to the opposite end of the spectrum—local, even hyper-local, issues. I am writing about two specific issues primarily because they remind me how in-your-face cities’ problems are. There is nothing abstract or theoretical about them; they affect our life, up close and in real time. These problems also serve as a reminder of how excruciatingly hard it is to manage cities. Once you put hundreds of thousands of people in a compact space, things get complicated. There are forces well beyond the control of any mayor and most of these problems have no really good answer.

How Do We Organize our Political Framework If It Isn’t Anchored by Economic Growth?

By Mike Koetting February 13, 2024

My last post suggested that at least some of the premises underlying specific political and policy decisions are based on assumptions about reality that are increasingly questionable. Today’s post considers what it would take to establish premises that might better fit evolving circumstances.

Our Framework for Policy May Point in Wrong Directions

By Mike Koetting January 30, 2024

When it comes to policy, most of our thoughts get focused on specifics—will Trump be elected again, will Congress reach a deal on immigration, will the Supreme Court strike down the Chevron deference, and so forth.

Not usually up for discussion is whether the background framework in which these issues get addressed will remain more or less the same. We simply assume it will. Intellectually, we know it changes over time—and that specific policy choices have a greater or larger impact on it—but we also don’t usually stop to consider how soon there could be changes that might drastically alter our barely conscious decision rules. We just assume that life will be more or less the same as it is now.

The Gap Between Awe and Fear

By Mike Koetting January 16, 2024

Today’s blog stems from my own feeling of disorientation as I contemplate the distance between some of the most spectacular knowledge ever achieved by humans and the risks to life as we know it from the application of this knowledge.

Some advances are truly dazzling. They can be seen only as magic to all but a handful of experts. My mind is blown by the fact we can identify a tiny strand of chromosome, understand its function and then manipulate it. Or that a computer can listen to a Zoom call and provide a workable summary of the discussion in multiple languages.

The application of science and technology inevitably results in changes to “life as we know it”. But how much change do we want? And, even if we could agree on the answer to that, how confident are we that we can limit change to within those boundaries? Or, perhaps, even if pushed beyond where we intended to stop, that we will be able to adapt to where the chips do fall?

The Post Office Navigates a Changing World. Or Not.

By Mike Koetting December 5, 2023

Christmas is approaching. I would know that, if for no other reason, from our mailbox, which is daily stuffed with catalogues.

When I was a kid, there used to be so many cards during the holidays, that the Post Office in our neighborhood did two deliveries a day the weeks before Christmas. A few catalogues, but mostly cards. I still get holiday cards, but it’s nothing like the tsunami of greetings my parents received.

The decline of Christmas cards turns out to be emblematic of a number of very thorny issues facing the United States Postal Service.

Gas Prices in America

By Mike Koetting November 20, 2023

Two weeks ago, Lisa Cook, a governor of the Federal Reserve Board appointed by Biden, was asked why he was getting so little credit for the economic situation. She suggested that consumers judge the economy not by a slowing of inflation but by the prices they are still paying. People, she said, simply want gas prices back to where they were before the pandemic.

Don’t we all. I still flinch at what it costs to fill up our family car. Still, this comment not only explains why voters question Biden’s economic stewardship, but also puts a blazing spotlight on the long road ahead as economy and environmental realities collide.

My First Car & Our Government

By Mike Koetting November 17, 2023

The first car I ever owned—actually, it was a joint ownership, but that’s a different story—was a 17-year-old, 1951 Plymouth. It was a beater. Edges crumpled, seats beyond uncomfortable, floorboard rusting out, no radio, heater didn’t work and it had a sometimes starter.

We drove this car because that’s the only car we had. There was no public transportation where we lived. Without a car, we were, literally, stuck.

Americans don’t seem to realize that their government is that car. When first put together, it was a magnificent machine—the envy of many countries. And would-be countries. But over the centuries, other countries began to see problems, tinkered with the American original and made one change and the other. The United States did some important tinkering, but it retained a lot of the original, particularly aspects of the structure that make our government so change-resistant. At the same time the creativity unloosened by democracy accelerated the rate of change. Predictably, over the years, our government became less fit for the highway.

Our Black Legacy Tour

By Mike Koetting October 24, 2023

There is no shortage of immediate crucial issues for contemplation such as the dysfunction in the U.S. House and the threat of a complete meltdown in the Middle East. But I wanted to write about our Black legacy tour of the Deep South while it was still pressing in my mind.

At the instigation of a good friend, she, her husband, my wife Barbara and I visited some of the important sites of Black history in the United States. We started at the Whitney Plantation outside New Orleans, a plantation that has been restored to focus on the lives of the enslaved people rather than the masters of the house, and ended at the National Civil Rights Museum in Memphis, built around the remnants of the Lorraine Motel, where Martin Luther King was assassinated.

The trip included a string of terrific museums and several other sites. All were spectacularly done and unleased a flood of facts, ideas and emotions. It would be impossible to summarize everything I learned or felt in a blog this length, but there were threads in the experience.

A Circus with Consequences

By Mike Koetting October 12, 2023

A Circus with Consequences

As I write this, the Republicans in the U.S. House are still thinking about who should be the next Speaker of the House. I’m not sure how much I have to say that is different from others, but I don’t see how I can regularly write about politics and policy without commenting on what’s happening. The current struggle marks the incontrovertible entry into a 15-month period that will determine whether American democracy continues as we know it or takes a detour, one from which it may never return.