A Circus with Consequences

By Mike Koetting October 12, 2023

A Circus with Consequences

As I write this, the Republicans in the U.S. House are still thinking about who should be the next Speaker of the House. I’m not sure how much I have to say that is different from others, but I don’t see how I can regularly write about politics and policy without commenting on what’s happening. The current struggle marks the incontrovertible entry into a 15-month period that will determine whether American democracy continues as we know it or takes a detour, one from which it may never return.

How We Got Here

The seriousness of this situation should be at the front of everyone’s mind–and was. until Hamas drove everything else off the media. People can’t keep their eyes off the tragedies of individual people. Hostages are especially interesting, particularly when they include people like us. And, if nothing else, the media is devoted to giving people what they want, even if the outcome of this event—however tragic, barbaric and unacceptable—is both an inevitability of the situation that has developed and subject to the inevitable result of Israel smashing Gaza to dust.

What’s happening in the House is a slow-moving disaster with relatively few visuals. Nothing to match the eye-catching shots of rockets over Gaza City. Unlike the conflict in Gaza, the outcome is very uncertain. However, like Gaza, the current situation is the totally predictable consequence of longer run trends and structural conditions.

• The founding framework of America was supremely focused on making sure that, while giving ultimate power to the people, that power was adequately balanced by protections of the minority from abuses of the majority. That framework has largely worked but it always contained the possibility of abuse of the majority by the minority. Even when the minority cannot enact its own agenda because of widespread unpopularity, it can bring the rest of the country to a stand-still. Which is where we are now.
• The Republican Party didn’t have enough market for traditional Republicans, so it broadened its tent to include people on the previously Too Far Right. In a narrow sense, that has been a relatively successful electoral strategy, particularly when combined with the ability to micro-gerrymander within the inherently lopsided electoral system. But the trick of riding any tiger is the ability to get off. They don’t have it. Having embraced the people who became MAGA, they are dependent on them. Without the MAGA core, Republicans are not competitive. And given both the intensity and the size of the MAGA constituency, they have come to own the party. The only exit for Republicans is a long and painful withdrawal process.
• The American economy and culture have left out large parts of the country and made them fearful of the future. People who dismiss MAGA as nothing more than catering to the self-interest of Trump and his cronies or indulging in xenophobic racism don’t sufficiently appreciate how broken the overall state of the country feels to those on the outside, a growing share of the population. Their impulses may be emotional and often incoherent– perfectly expressed by the sentiment “Keep government out of Medicare.” But the lack of an actionable agenda or the profound imprecision of their assigning blame should not obscure the reality of how many people in America feel that the country no longer has their best interests at heart—and have valid reasons for that belief. American cosmopolitan capitalism, a bi-partisan production, has left a large share of the population in a ditch. Given the sketchiness of their understanding of how government does and might work, they are not worried if the whole thing blows up. They are more angry than anything else…and being angry and feeling a lack of agency is not conducive to rational decision making. MAGA is both an expression and an exploitation of that.

What Happens Now

I can’t know what will happen next. Like the rest of us, I’m waiting. But it sure seems to me like a really big deal.

The most likely outcome, I suspect, is that Republicans elect Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan in order to get it over. (Or someone else acceptable to Freedom Caucus.) This will presumably indicate that even “moderate” Republicans no longer believe they have any path without MAGA. If this happens, it is hard to see how governance is possible. The next round of budget deadlines is November 17, barely a month from now. A host of other thorny issues should also be addressed, but it will be hard to find enough consensus to move forward.

I want to believe that level of dysfunctionality will not be well received by a lot of people, including many who are nominally Republican. But I don’t know what difference that makes. It is beyond my imagination that there would be any widespread revolt against Republicans. Battle lines are too fixed and are already so unmoored from reality that actual events are unlikely to make a difference. There are 18 Republican reps from districts won by Biden. Possibly they could be in play. The relevant question is probably whether those reps believe that the Republicans in their district would protect them in a difficult primary if they voted against a MAGA candidate, or, perhaps, that the district would vote for a Democrat in the general election if they didn’t. In any event, I don’t know where anyone else is likely to change the calculus.

A much less likely possibility is that the Republicans could find a “moderate” who is not objectionable to the Freedom Caucus and, thus, could be elected with only Republican votes. This is hard to imagine, but they may get desperate enough.

Another outcome, even less likely, but still in the world of possible, is some kind of deal with Democrats to create a “consensus” framework for the House. Hakeem Jeffries has proposed something along these lines. It has a strong theoretical appeal—and would almost certainly be good for the nation–but it is not obvious how this would happen. It would require a Republican moderate who is acceptable to the Democrats and could be counted on to keep their word without a solid majority while enduring the withering assessment of former colleagues—and, then, able to hold on to the seat in the next primary. That’s a tall order.

What Does This Say for the Future

Electing a Steve Scalise (who likened himself to “David Dukes without the baggage”) or a Jim Jordan would be a further signal that the Republicans are not going to shy away from MAGA, probably even in the absence of Donald Trump. That will make the 2024 elections life or death for democracy as we know it.

Of course I don’t know how that will turn out. However, it is increasingly clear to me that I am unequipped to appreciate how a significant portion of the country makes its political decisions. I can readily grasp all the reasons people have for being angry, although I concede being protected from the forces that are grinding at them might make my intellectual comprehension something entirely different from feeling it every relentless day. Even so, I can’t fathom how these angry people go from legitimate concerns to the idea that the nihilism of MAGA will actually address their concerns.

They don’t really want the government out of Medicare. They want a healthcare system that is more accessible, affordable and less bureaucratic. A healthcare system that seems, unlike the current system, more interested in really providing heath than enriching the corporate entities that increasingly dominate healthcare. These are reasonable desires. And given that government already pays for a majority of healthcare, can you really blame them for being skeptical about more government involvement.

Problem is, they have already forgotten Donald Trump’s belated and feeble excuse for losing interest in healthcare reform: “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated “

This is true of every single issue that faces the society now—including the myriad of forces that have created an America shockingly unable to offer its citizens support anywhere commensurate with other developed countries. Simply blowing up government won’t help. And putting it in the hands of a grievance filled megalomanic like Donald Trump will make everything worse.

The solution can only be reached through addressing these issues—channeling this anger—into a political process that is willing to entertain complex issues, to build a consensus on what needs to be done, and take appropriate action to implement nuanced solutions. This can only come from a government of men and women oriented to finding common solutions rather than demonizing the other side.

If the Republicans insist on installing a speaker with a MAGA commitment, it only deepens the hole.  History is full of the debacles created when the only fuel is provided by anger and retribution.

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A note on pictures. I found the picture above in several places on the internet. It was taken by Dawn Teo in Phoenix, who was covering an anti-Obamacare rally for Huffington Post. It was an actual sign carried by one of her neighbors and is used with her permission, which is how I know the story.

I had started to use a different picture—with the same sentiment–but I had trouble with the focus. I kept looking around for a better version and found it in several other spots on the internet, but I also found an article that showed that it was in fact photo-shopped over another sign. The actual sign from the rally, while certainly anti-Obamacare, said something very different. Somewhat harmless…this time.

We most certainly are no longer in Kansas.